Thursday, March 27, 2003
I've been doing a bit of research on war predictions, and instead of writing a post about it I'll give you some of the raw data. This is just a sampling -- I should note that I was searching specifically for government official's pronouncements on the length of the war. If you Google on the subject, you'll see that economists are the largest group of war predictors, and it was and is a bigger issue with them (or at least they were the most vocal about it).
White House Vague on War Cost Estimates
Thursday, Feb. 27, 2003
WASHINGTON -- A Defense Department official Wednesday called reports that the administration would seek $95 billion in supplemental appropriations to pay for military action and humanitarian efforts in Iraq an "overstatement," but neither the White House nor the Pentagon would confirm how much Congress would be asked to approve.
The official declined to give a more accurate figure, saying the numbers were still being crunched, and said much will depend on the length of the war, its intensity and how much help the United States gets from allies.
"Clearly we are not anticipating anything that's long and drawn out," the official said. "The shorter it's going to be, obviously the more intense is going to be," he said. "The idea is to fund what we'll need for a relatively short, intense conflict."
U.S. ambassador hopes Iraqis would hail victory over Saddam Hussein
SNEZHINSK (Chelyabinsk region). March 1 (Interfax) - U.S. Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow has not ruled that a war in Iraq may raise a negative response in the Arab world and cause certain tensions between the United States and Arab countries.
Vershbow said at a news conference in Znezhinsk, the Chelyabinsk region on Saturday that the United States predicts a short military operation in Iraq, and the people of Iraq will applaud their country's liberation after more than 30 years of its dictatorial regime.
ISRAEL SAYS US WILL ATTACK IRAQ IN MAY
Israeli defence experts predict that the United States will launch an attack on Iraq in May, after US President Gorge Bush branded Iraq, Iran and North Korea an axis of evil.
The military experts, quoted by the Yediot Aharonot newspaper, say the
Pentagon has received permission to start preparations for an offensive against Iraq as the second phase of Washington's global war on terror after Afghanistan.
The Israelis say the Americans have already started mustering the necessary troops and were coordinating with the Iraqi opposition.
The paper says Israeli Defence Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer will ask the US administration to coordinate its offensive with the Israeli leadership.
Source: ABC Radio Australia News
Henry L. Marconi
Yahoo article on war length... http://in.biz.yahoo.com/030108/65/1zt22.html
Military optimistic that war will be short -- http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/1112/p01s01-usmi.html ("Still, several analysts predict that a US-led war to oust Hussein would last no more than a few weeks.")
Atlantic Monthy article, "The 51st State?" -- http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2002/11/fallows.htm
JCS plans for a short conflict -- http://www.pilotonline.com/military/ml0306cas.html
Washington Post article (good) -- http://www.truthout.org/docs_02/12.03E.irq.war.200B.htm
OMB estimates war cost at $50 - $60 billion -- http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/31/politics/31BUDG.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,841825,00.html ("This weekend Donald Rumsfeld, the American Defence Secretary, said he did not anticipate a long war. 'In the event that it becomes necessary, the United States would do it in a manner that would be respectful of human life on all sides, but would be determined to do the job and to finish it fast.'")
250,000 casualties in the first three months -- http://www.medact.org/tbx/pages/sub.cfm?id=556 see also http://www.guardian.co.uk/analysis/story/0,3604,884289,00.html
Heritage Foundation background paper on Iraq, possible war -- http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/bg1589.cfm
Zinni speech on possible Iraq war -- http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/zinni-iraq-conditions-pr.cfm
Speech by Joseph Biden, January 28, 2003 -- http://www.themoderntribune.com/new_page_4.htm
Speech by Bob Grahm, October 10, 2002 -- http://graham.senate.gov/pr101002.html
Quick Iraq air war predicted -- http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2002/021229-iraq01.htm
Military Commanders say war will be bloodier than some expect -- http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/1219-08.htm
March 18th editorial leading with Rumsfeld, Perle predictions of short war -- http://newsobserver.com/editorials/story/2335078p-2188883c.html
Andrew 8:26 AM : |
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